Smart Grid: Impact of Weather and how to improve load forecasts
The energy sector is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Decentralization, a rise in the number of electrical loads such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, and the growing share of volatile renewable energies are increasing the complexity of the energy system. On top of the above, in recent years Santa Ana winds in California causing unparallel havoc in the electric grid.
Los Angeles/California, December 7, 2020 - The energy sector is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Decentralization, a rise in the number of electrical loads such as e-vehicles and heat pumps, and the growing share of volatile renewable energies are increasing the complexity of the energy system. On top of it, in recent years Santa Ana winds in California causing unparallel havoc in the electric grid, along with unpredictable weather in US north east region, with cold freeze and flood also impacting the reliability of the grid. Managing this complex system is one of the central challenges of the energy transition and a prerequisite for maintaining stable power grids in the future.
The common goal of
synchronizing energy production in terms of both time and place, the energy
transition would be unthinkable without digitalization. In order for the
electricity market to take energy flows into account and react to environmental
influences such as changing weather conditions, smart grids must know exactly
how much energy is being consumed where as well as how much is being produced,
and must be able to translate this information into flexibility signals. That's
why weather forecasts and yield forecasts for photovoltaics and other power
generation systems, along with load forecasts on the consumption side, are so
important.
"The better we can communicate the weather-related flexibility needs of the grid to the electricity market, the better the market can do its part to promote grid stability," explains Bobby Ortega, Chairman of the Kit Carson Electric in Taos, New Mexico.
Alongside optimized load management forecasts, improvements in weather and
yield forecasting can help to stabilize power grids, especially at the level of
the distribution grid. They are also a key component of smart grids. When such
forecasts are integrated into smart generation and load management strategies,
they can ensure that existing grid capacity is more fully exploited, thereby
minimizing the need for expansion. Thanks to digitalization and artificial
intelligence (AI), these forecasts are becoming more and more accurate.
Improved marketing on the energy exchange Trianel, a public utility cooperative
that is active throughout Germany, is one company that is turning to AI. Its
cloud-based solution and self-learning algorithms gather and analyze generation
and weather data in real time from wind and photovoltaic installations boasting
more than three gigawatts of capacity in total, and compare these with
historical weather data. The resulting forecasts for short-term changes in
yield are up to 20 percent more accurate than previous approaches, which makes
it easier to market the power on the energy exchange and allows operators to
more accurately calculate the profitability of an installation. Improving
forecast accuracy also facilitates the integration of volatile wind and solar
power into the energy system, ensuring stable power grids and a secure supply
of energy.
More accurate forecasts of photovoltaic yields
As part of the PermaStrom project, which focuses on using
photovoltaic yield forecasts to better manage the effect of atmospheric
aerosols on German and European power grids, a team of researchers from the
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the German weather service DWD and
meteocontrol, a provider of monitoring and yield forecasting services, are
investigating how grains of sand and tiny particles of ash and dust in the
atmosphere influence cloud formation and thus photovoltaic yields. The research
relies on measurement data from weather stations as well as satellite data.
More accurate photovoltaic yield forecasts can also benefit grid management by
providing grid operators with new forecast models. The project is supported by
transmission system operators Amprion, 50Hertz and EnBW.
Using grid analysis to identify bottlenecks early on
Better forecasts will also help grid operators meet the new
legal requirements for managing grid congestion (Redispatch 2.0), which take
effect on October 1, 2021. While re-dispatching was previously required only
for conventional power generation systems with more than 10 megawatts of
capacity, the new requirements will also apply to systems for generating
renewable power as well as energy storage systems and cogeneration plants with
more than 100 kilowatts of capacity. Predicted load profiles for generation
plants and electrical devices will be used to prepare grid analyses that can
help identify congestion early on, allowing for preemptive measures to be
taken. Such an approach requires uniform standards for data exchange as well as
automated, digital data delivery, which presents a significant challenge for
smaller distribution system operators in particular. In order to develop
solutions such as a common software program, German grid operators are
collaborating as part of the nationwide project "Connect+."
Grid-2030: consortium design by NKSoft KEMA Consulting in 2021
To ensure a functional future energy supply, cross-sector and
intelligently linked concepts and solutions will be needed. This is where the
reorganized NKSoft KEMA Consulting comes in. To create the Grid-2030 consortium
in 2021, we will draw companies competing to shape the new energy world - from
market leaders to start-ups - to present their innovative products and
integrated energy solutions. Starting in 2021, smart grids and the integration
of renewable energies as well as grid infrastructure and system services will
be incorporated into the Grid-2030 concept. Topics such as decentralized
and renewable energy supply, smart building automation, energy management
systems and sector coupling within microgrids, districts and buildings as well
as commercial and industrial energy services will remain an important part of Grid-2030
consortium.
DIgSILENT GmbH, EDF Store & Forecast, Gantner Instruments Environment
Solutions GmbH, meteocontrol GmbH, Meteo for Energy S.L., Meteotest AG,
smartblue AG, Solare Datensysteme GmbH, Solargis s.r.o. and Xemex will be among
the companies expressed their products and services for weather and yield
forecasting and the monitoring of energy plants for the Grid-2030, led
by NKSoft KEMA Consulting.
NKSoft KEMA Consulting
NKSoft
KEMA Consulting is a reputed international grid modernization consultancy with
experience in energy management, microgrids, integration of distributed energy
(DER) solutions, efficient transmission and distribution grid planning, renewable
energy generation planning, design and engineering, and smart city planning and
deployment.
Other consulting services including rate design, policy development, business economics of smart energy services, batteries and energy storage systems, grid infrastructure, energy services and operator models.
NKSoft KEMA Consulting delivers the ideal technological
solutions and services and showcases ways to achieve a decentralized,
sustainable, carbon-neutral and future-oriented renewable energy supply.
